Search results for " Forecasting"

2019

Abstract. This study uses the synergy of multi-resolution soil moisture (SM) satellite estimates from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission, a dense network of ground-based SM measurements, and a soil–vegetation–atmosphere transfer (SVAT) model, SURFEX (externalized surface), module ISBA (interactions between soil, biosphere and atmosphere), to examine the benefits of the SMOS level 4 (SMOS-L4) version 3.0, or “all weather” high-resolution soil moisture disaggregated product (SMOS-L43.0; ∼1 km). The added value compared to SMOS level 3 (SMOS-L3; ∼25 km) and SMOS level 2 (SMOS-L2; ∼15 km) is investigated. In situ SM observations over the Valencia anchor station (VAS; SMOS calibrati…

Statistical retrieval of atmospheric profiles with deep convolutional neural networks

2019

Abstract Infrared atmospheric sounders, such as IASI, provide an unprecedented source of information for atmosphere monitoring and weather forecasting. Sensors provide rich spectral information that allows retrieval of temperature and moisture profiles. From a statistical point of view, the challenge is immense: on the one hand, “underdetermination” is common place as regression needs to work on high dimensional input and output spaces; on the other hand, redundancy is present in all dimensions (spatial, spectral and temporal). On top of this, several noise sources are encountered in the data. In this paper, we present for the first time the use of convolutional neural networks for the retr…

The Making of the New European Wind Atlas - Part 2: production and evaluation

2020

This is the second of two papers that document the creation of the New European Wind Atlas (NEWA). In Part 1, we described the sensitivity experiments and accompanying evaluation done to arrive at the final mesoscale model setup used to produce the mesoscale wind atlas. In this paper, Part 2, we document how we made the final wind atlas product, covering both the production of the mesoscale climatology generated with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the microscale climatology generated with the Wind Atlas Analysis and Applications Program (WAsP). The paper includes a detailed description of the technical and practical aspects that went into running the mesoscale simulati…

The making of the New European Wind Atlas - Part 1: Model sensitivity

2020

This is the first of two papers that document the creation of the New European Wind Atlas (NEWA). It describes the sensitivity analysis and evaluation procedures that formed the basis for choosing the final setup of the mesoscale model simulations of the wind atlas. The suitable combination of model setup and parameterizations, bound by practical constraints, was found for simulating the climatology of the wind field at turbine-relevant heights with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Initial WRF model sensitivity experiments compared the wind climate generated by using two commonly used planetary boundary layer schemes and were carried out over several regions in Europe. They…

A process-based anatomy of Mediterranean cyclones: from baroclinic lows to tropical-like systems

2021

Abstract. In this study, we address the question of the atmospheric processes that turn Mediterranean cyclones into severe storms. Our approach applies on-line potential vorticity (PV) budget diagnostics and piecewise PV inversion to WRF model simulations of the mature stage of 100 intense Mediterranean cyclones. We quantify the relative contributions of different processes to cyclone development and therefore deliver, for the first time, a comprehensive insight into the variety of cyclonic systems that develop in the Mediterranean from the perspective of cyclone dynamics. In particular, we show that all 100 cyclones are systematically influenced by two main PV anomalies: a major anomaly in…

Global-Scale Evaluation of Roughness Effects on C-Band AMSR-E Observations

2015

Quantifying roughness effects on ground surface emissivity is an important step in obtaining high-quality soil moisture products from large-scale passive microwave sensors. In this study, we used a semi-empirical method to evaluate roughness effects (parameterized here by the parameter) on a global scale from AMSR-E (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS) observations. AMSR-E brightness temperatures at 6.9 GHz obtained from January 2009 to September 2011, together with estimations of soil moisture from the SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) L3 products and of soil temperature from ECMWF’s (European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting) were used as inputs in a retrieval…

Predicting olive flowering phenology with phenoclimatic models

2018

In plants, day length and temperature are the major climatic factors that affect the transition from a phenological phase to the next one. Non-linear models, such as growing degree hours (GDH), have been successfully used to calculate thermal time required for spring bud burst in deciduous fruit trees. In this experiment, temperature records and blooming dates of olive trees in different years and for 10 different sites in the Italian territory were recorded. Olive booming time was correlated to the amount of (GDH) accumulated from the date of bud rest onset, calculated as the day when the maximum negative chilling units accumulation was reached (UTAH Model), to full bloom. The GDH model wa…

Uncovering the knowledge flows and intellectual structures of research in Technological Forecasting and Social Change: A journey through history

2020

Abstract Technological Forecasting and Social Change (TF&SC) celebrates its fiftieth anniversary this year. The anniversary represents an appropriate time for an introspective analysis of the journal's history and impact. This study presents a bibliometric analysis of TF&SC in terms of how often TF&SC is cited by other journals (citation outflow), how often other journals are cited by TF&SC (citation inflow), citations by Web of Science and SCImago disciplinary categories, most-cited articles in TF&SC, co-citation of journals, and co-occurrence of author keywords. Analysis is conducted by using the Web of Science (WOS) database and Visualization of Similarities (VOS) viewer software. The in…

Comparing two applicative criteria of the soil erosion physical model concept

2017

The physical model represented by a replicated plot has been suggested to be the best possible, unbiased, real world model to predict plot soil erosion. The aim of this investigation was to compare the original applicative criterion of the physical model concept proposed by Nearing with that later suggested by Bagarello et al. The comparison was performed by using three empirical soil erosion models (the Universal Soil Loss Equation [USLE], a modified USLE [USLE-MM], and the Central and Southern Italy [CSI] model) and plot soil loss data collected at the experimental station of Sparacia, in Sicily (southern Italy). The investigation showed that (i) the new criterion was generally more restr…

Predictive pumping based on sensor data and weather forecast

2019

In energy production, peat extraction has a significant role in Finland. However, protection of nature has become more and more important globally. How do we solve this conflict of interests respecting both views? In peat production, one important phase is to drain peat bog so that peat production becomes available. This means that we have control over how we can lead water away from peat bog to nature without water contamination with solid and other harmful substances. In this paper we describe a novel method how fouling of water bodies from peat bog can be controlled more efficiently by using weather forecast to predict rainfall and thus, minimize the effluents to nature. peerReviewed